RBI policy ahead, Fear factor or cautious step ?

Tomorrow India RBI will explore its policy. one pre-session before this even, rate sensitive & banking stock are under heavy selling pressure. BANK NIFTY is down over 2% at NIFTY 0.75%. Is this we can call a fear factor of cautious before policy ?

1- RBI is facing serious problem in handling Inflation, observed since last six policy, RBI steps are getting fail on Inflation front. this time again a add on of fuel price hike will be the key factor to dominate the policy. This favour  to fear factor.

2- One possibility of rates keeps unchanged to observe one more quarter as next month the mansoon (rainy session) will start that might support a bit to food inflation to cool off. this comes under cautiousness.

Majority of analyst are on 25 Bps rate hikes in REPO & REV REPO. if this happens, market can bounce up to 50 points on NIFTY and short covering on banking sector might support this further. As per my view,
RBI might take risk with keeping all the key rates unchanged, so that by next policy the mansoon factor will be clear and food inflation might under control. this will lead the RBI governor to provide some soft corner to market. 

The hikes of 50Bps are  very rare at this stage, but if any case it happens, the screen might show 100 point down on nifty indices. 

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